CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM

TO: TEAM TRUMP

FROM: TONY FABRIZIO

RE: WHAT RFK JR.’S EXIT AND ENDORSEMENT MEANS

DATE: AUGUST 23, 2024

With the exit of RFK Jr. from the race and his endorsement of President Trump, there will undoubtedly be a great deal of speculation of what it means and who it will help. I’ve seen the Harris folks already trying to spin that it won’t impact the race.

Well, the data speaks for itself. The table below is from our most recent round of battleground state surveys. As you can clearly see, in every single state RFK Jr.’s vote breaks for President Trump.

Kennedy Vote Share by State and How They Vote in the Head to Head Ballot:

To put these numbers into perspective, the net vote gained in a state like Arizona based on just a 2020 turnout model would be over 41,000 votes nearly 4 times Biden’s winning margin or in Georgia the net gain would be over 19,000 votes nearly twice Biden’s margin.

So, when you hear or see the Harris team and/or the Democrats try and spin otherwise, now that the data clearly paints a different picture. This is good news for President Trump and his campaign – plain and simple.

Read the full memo here.