TO:         Trump Campaign Senior Leadership Team

FROM:   Tim Saler, Grassroots Targeting – Chief Data Consultant, DJTFP / RNC

SUBJ:     The Democrat Turnout Problem Heading Into Election Day

DATE:     November 4, 2024

With Early Voting closed and Election Day on the horizon, Democrats are facing a massive turnout deficit. In every single battleground state, we see President Trump and Republicans outperforming elections past in absentee ballots and early votes cast. As we dive deeper into the data, Democrats are facing a precipitous decline in urban turnout according to their own “data experts” and we are tracking an uptick in rural turnout. 

Obama’s former campaign manager, Jim Messina, said on MSNBC that “the early vote numbers are a little scary.” What Mr. Messina is downplaying, is they are a lot scarier for Democrats. According to NBC News, President Donald J. Trump has a 16-point lead (56-40) among voters who plan to cast their ballot on Election Day. Obama’s chief campaign strategist and CNN political commentator, David Axelrod, told CNN that there are no guarantees that voters will turn out on Election Day for Vice President Harris.

Democrats are spinning themselves and reporters by claiming that their voters will turn out on Election Day when polls show otherwise and, most importantly, that’s asking Democrat voters to do something they have absolutely no history of doing. If Democrats, who historically vote ahead of Election Day, haven’t been motivated to show up for Kamala yet, why do we expect them to show up tomorrow?

President Donald J. Trump is going into Election Day stronger than he has in any previous election and if patriots across the country keep the momentum and turn out as expected on Election Day, we will be swearing in President Trump in January.

But you don’t need to take our word for it. According to Democrat data expert Tom Bonier of TargetSmart:

Arizona:

Urban turnout is down -385,285 votes compared to this point in 2020

Female turnout is down -170,011 votes compared to this point in 2020

Rural turnout is UP +14,124 votes compared to this point in 2020

Georgia:

Urban turnout is down -153,846 votes compared to this point in 2020

Female turnout is down -46,732 votes compared to this point in 2020

Rural turnout is UP +171,837 votes compared to this point in 2020

Michigan:

Urban turnout is down -321.,523 votes compared to this point in 2020

Female turnout is down -204,856 votes compared to this point in 2020

Rural turnout is UP +55,951 votes compared to this point in 2020

North Carolina:

Urban turnout is down -175,470 votes compared to this point in 2020

Female turnout is down -154,459 votes compared to this point in 2020

Rural turnout is UP +26,911 votes compared to this point in 2020

Nevada:

Urban turnout is down -191,199 votes compared to this point in 2020

Female turnout is down -126,112 votes compared to this point in 2020

Pennsylvania:

Urban turnout is down -381,519 votes compared to this point in 2020

Female turnout is down -450,802 votes compared to this point in 2020

Wisconsin:

Urban turnout is down -100,733 votes compared to this point in 2020

Female turnout is down -238,452 votes compared to this point in 2020

Read the memo HERE.