BLUF: The New York Times & Siena College released their latest national survey, conducted fully post-Labor Day and post-DNC convention (September 3-6).
President Trump leads Kamala Harris by 2 points in both the head-to-head and multi-candidate ballots among all registered voters nationally.
In their latest survey, we continue to see a sustained pattern of President Trump overperforming with black voters (17-74 among registered voters; Trump +5 compared to 2020 exits and Harris running 13 points behind Biden) and Hispanic voters (42-51 among registered voters; Trump +10 compared to 2020 exits and Harris running 14 points behind Biden).
President Trump also continues to overperform among young voters. He trails by just 1 point (46-47) among voters aged 18-29, again +10 compared to 2020 exits while Harris runs 13 points behind Biden.
It’s no wonder then that, no matter which competing team is in charge of the Harris campaign on a given day, they have a consistent strategy of playing defense among young and non-white voters. Regardless of how they spin it to the media, they are playing defense and they know it.
On a side note, we have noted previously how President Trump regularly overperforms his standing in NYT / Siena surveys of battleground states compared to the reported 2020 results. The same is true of their national surveys.
The simple truth is that when a survey reflects the actual electorate, President Trump is in the lead.
As you may remember, NYT / Siena released silly numbers in their August battleground state surveys. Their polls reflected electorates where Biden won Michigan by 7, Pennsylvania by 5, Wisconsin by 9, Arizona by 7, and Nevada by 9. None of those were anywhere near reality.
Perhaps they took our notes on this to heart, as their national survey released today shows 37% of registered voters having voted for President Trump in 2020 compared to 40% having voted for Joe Biden – considerably more accurate to the reported national results than any of those battleground surveys from last month.
