TO: JAKE TAPPER, DANA BASH, & OTHER INTERESTED MEDIA

DATE: June 26, 2024

SUBJECT: Joe Biden’s Lies on Crime

Jake, Dana, and others:

As you know, Joe Biden has recently been claiming that violent crime is down under his administration. In advance of this week’s presidential debate, we felt it necessary to make you aware that that the actual facts show conclusively and irrefutably that Joe Biden has presided over a staggering increase in violent crime.

Biden’s Fake Crime Statistics

According to his own White House press release, Joe Biden’s false claims about a dramatic drop in crime are ostensibly based on data from the FBI’s Quarterly Uniform Crime Report. As numerous experts have testified, however, this data is completely and totally unreliable at the present time. In 2021, the FBI drastically changed how it collects this crime data from local law enforcement agencies across the country. As a result, thousands of local jurisdictions stopped reporting their crime statistics just as law enforcement and criminal justice policies were being radically altered in cities nationwide. 

The FBI’s website reveals that the Q1 2024 data Joe Biden is citing comes from just 71% of the nation’s law enforcement agencies. That means crime data from nearly one third of jurisdictions is missing. Among the jurisdictions that did not report are some of the largest and most violent cities in America: Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland, New Orleans, and many others. Ten entire states did not report their data. 

Although the FBI attempts to “estimate” crime data for non-reporting agencies using a “statistical weight” from reporting agencies similar in size and type, this practice is unscientific and highly dubious at best—and the flaws in what essentially amounts to ‘filler data’ grow as non-reporting increases. It is absolutely impossible that such “estimations” could concoct a useful picture of thousands of diverse non-reporting jurisdictions, all of which have different policing practices, budgets, prosecutors, local leadership, and populations. While this practice of estimating crime numbers for agencies with missing data has been going on since the 1960s, it historically constituted a miniscule 5% of all agencies reflected in the statistics. There is no credible way to “estimate”—or more accurately, forge or fabricate—reliable crime data for a full one third of the United States.

Before Joe Biden turned these useless statistics into his latest talking point, even liberal publications admitted that the missing data rendered the current FBI crime reports worthless. In May 2022, The Atlantic said that FBI crime numbers are “unlikely to provide the clarity into crime trends” due to “a recent, and significant, change to how the FBI collects crime data”. Additionally, liberal Vox admitted that the FBI “had to estimate crime data like never before” and that “it may be several more years before as many agencies are reporting as used to under the old [FBI data collection] system”—meaning there would be “serious limits to what the new data can tell us about what actually happened last year.”

As the old computer science saying goes: Garbage In, Garbage Out. The statistics Joe Biden is citing are just that—garbage.

The Real Facts Show Joe Biden Has Presided Over a Colossal Increase in Violent Crime

Given the total unreliability of the FBI’s current Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program as described above, the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is by far the most credible and reliable barometer of crime nationwide. Unlike the FBI numbers, which even in the best of circumstances only account for crimes that are reported to police, the NCVS measures both crimes that get reported and those that go unreported to law enforcement. It is a survey not of police reports, but of crime victims.

According to the NCVS, Joe Biden has overseen a violent crime wave of historic proportions. The NCVS reveals that between 2020 and 2022 (the most recent year for which data is available), there was a 43% increase in violent crime, 58% increase in rape, 89% Increase in aggravated assault, and a 56% increase in robbery.”

Additionally, the NCVS finds that more Americans were victims of violent crimes in 2022 than in any year since 2012.

Murders and Attacks on Police Soar Under Biden

Joe Biden has also presided over three of the four most murderous years in the last quarter century. Even using the flawed FBI data which Biden is citing, there has been a 10% increase in the average annual number of homicides under Biden as compared to Trump (Trump 18,627 vs. Biden 20,700). 

Likewise, according to data compiled by the National Fraternal Order of Police, there has been a 21% increasein the number of police officers shot in the line of duty since Joe Biden took office. The number of ambush-style attacks, and the number of officers killed in those attacks, has more than doubled since Joe Biden took office. Last year marked the highest rate of assaults on police at any point in the last decade, with over 79,000 assaults.

Local Data Underscores Giant Crime Spree

Also useful are the data from individual U.S. cities. While anecdotal, major increases in crime in numerous major U.S. cities are obviously inconsistent with Joe Biden’s false picture of a historic drop in crime. And these are not minor fluctuations—these are humungous swings.

Between President Trump’s final year in office and the end of 2023, crime in many American cities rose substantially, often dramatically. Using the latest available data, since 2020, there has been a 166% increase in carjackings in Washington D.C., as well as a 38% increase in homicides, and a 74% increase in robbery. In New York City, there has been a 75% increase in carjackings and a 42% increase in grand larceny. In Atlanta, there has been a 66% increase in carjackings and a 16% increase in aggravated assaults. In Chicago, there has been a 40% increase in robbery, 24% increase in assaults, and a 155% increase in stalking cases.  In Philadelphia, there’s been a 135% increase in retail theft and a 152% increase in carjackings. In San Francisco, there’s been a 26% increase in grand larceny and a 10% increase in carjackings. In Seattle, there’s been an 85% increase in carjackings and a 23% increase in aggravated assaults. 

The downward spiral has continued: just in the last year, there has been a 46% increase in transit crime in New York City, 12% increase in homicides in Minneapolis, 37%  increase in homicides in Reno, 85% increase in homicides in Wichita, 180% increase in homicides in Colorado Springs, 24% increase in homicides in Charlotte, and a 24% increase in homicides in Baton Rouge.

It’s Not Crime That’s Down; It’s Crime Reporting That’s Down

The NCVS has shown that reporting of crime has been on a steady decline for the last three decades.

The NCVS reveals that in 2022, there was a 4% decrease in reporting of violent crimes, and a 12% decrease in reporting of violent crimes committed by strangers compared to 2021. 

It's no mystery why crime reporting would be down sharply: in the wake of the radical left’s war on law enforcement and police starting in 2020, jurisdictions across the country began adopting the most extreme left-wing criminal justice policies ever implemented (and did so with the support of Joe Biden and his party). Marxist prosecutors stopped prosecuting numerous offenses, leading police to stop arresting criminals for crimes that would never be prosecuted, leading more victims not to even call the police. 

According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, there are a few reasons why victims decide not to report crime. First, they “fear of reprisal or getting the offender in trouble.” Second, they believe “the police would not or could not do anything to help.” Third, they believe “the crime to be a personal issue or too trivial to report.” The Democrat Party’s war on police and law enforcement exacerbates each and every one of these factors leading victims not to report crime.

Never forget: the Biden Crime Wave Was Started by Joe Biden and Joe Biden’s Party.

As everyone knows, the Democrat Party in 2020 launched a colossal campaign of violence and vilification against police officers and law enforcement across the country. This crusade to “Defund the Police,” or, euphemistically, “Reimagine Public Safety,” included widespread violent rioting that was accepted and often encouraged by Democrat politicians. Joe Biden, his radical supporters, and his media allies put a target on the backs of law enforcement officers nationwide. 

As a result, there were over 4,000 additional assaults on police in 2020 compared to 2019—and the left-wing war on police has only continued. Police officers were bullied and intimidated into backing off the enforcement of the law.  Mass resignations ensued. An analysis conducted by the Police Executive Research Forum in February 2023 found that there was a 47% increase in officer resignations between 2019 and 2022, and a 19% increase in officers retiring over the course of those same three years. 

Those resignations were predictably followed by recruiting struggles across the country. The Police Executive Research Forum reported a nearly 5% decrease in the number of uniformed police officers on the streets between 2020 and 2023. International Association of Chiefs of Police President John Letteney attributes this recruiting shortfall to “media coverage [that] has led many young people to view police differently than their parents' generation may have.” 

In the summer of 2020, Los Angeles had 9,750 police officers in its ranks; now it has 8,908. Seattle has had a net loss of 355 officers since 2020, and in 2023 the police force had the fewest number of people on staff in over three decades. The St. Louis Police Department lost nearly 18% of its police force between 2022 and 2023. Last year Washington D.C.’s Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) had 3,350 sworn officers, 450 fewer than 2020. The MPD Chief of Police reported that his department was “at the lowest staffing level” in “the past 50 years.”

Meanwhile, left-wing jurisdictions literally did “defund the police.” New York City cut their police department budget by $317 million, Los Angeles by $150 million, Baltimore by $22 million, San Francisco by $120 million, Minneapolis by $8 million, Oakland by $14 million, Portland by $15 million, Washington D.C. by $15 million, Philadelphia by $33 million, and Salt Lake City by $5 million.

Making matters even worse, Joe Biden has repeatedly pushed Congress to pass legislation that would strip police officers of qualified immunity and expose them to an endless barrage of lawsuits to bankrupt them and potentially even subject them to criminal penalties.

As a direct result of these left-wing assaults on law enforcement, police have arrested an average of 800,000 fewer criminals per year under Joe Biden than they did under President Trump—leaving Americans much less safe under Crooked Joe Biden.

Marxist DAs Refuse to Enforce the Law

The Biden Crime Wave has been compounded by left-wing jurisdictions that gutted prosecution and penalties for dangerous criminals. 

In New York, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg announced that he would cease prosecutions of most trespassing cases, resisting arrest, prostitution, drug dealing (marijuana), and more. Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascon directed prosecutors to decline or dismiss charges against individuals for trespassing, disturbing the peace, driving without a valid license, driving on a suspended license, making criminal threats, public intoxication, and loitering to commit prostitution. In Philadelphia, District Attorney Larry Krasner treats theft of any goods valued at less than $500 as a mere “summary offense” unless the perpetrator happens to also have a documented history of theft. Former San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudinbrought charges for shoplifting of items under $950 less than half the time such arrests occurred between 2020 and 2021. Cook County District Attorney Kim Foxx raised the threshold for theft to be considered a felony from $300 to $1,000. 

Within one year of New York State implementing its law to abolish cash bail in 2020, the city of New York saw a 97% increase in shootings, 42% increase in burglaries, 44% increase in murders, and a 67% increase in carjackings. Joe Biden endorsed this policy in 2020, calling cash bail a “modern-day debtors’ prison” at the apex of the violent riots that summer. He reaffirmed his support for “no cash bail” in his “Unity Task Force” with Socialist Senator Bernie Sanders. And Biden continues to support abolishing cash bail to this day. In the White House’s “National Strategy on Gender Equity and Equality,” his administration restated that its goal is to “end cash bail”.

Americans Know Joe Biden is Lying About Crime

Joe Biden may feel he can lie with impunity about crime using his fake statistics, but the American People are not fooled. The public knows that crime is way up.

Earlier this year, 68% of Republicans, 58% of Independents, and even 47% of Democrats said reducing crime “should be a top priority” for the President and Congress. The majority of Americans also reported that since last year, crime had increased at both the local and national levels (55% and 77% respectively).

Joe Biden offers no explanation for how or why 77% of Americans are wrong to trust their own experience over his fake crime statistics. 

Rampant Crime Has Degraded the Quality of Daily Life Under Biden

It should be no shock that Americans are not fooled by Joe Biden’s empty talking points on crime. The Biden Crime Wave has a daily impact on Americans’ quality of life.

Conditions have become so lawless in some Democrat-run cities that residents are preemptively leaving their cars open so would-be thieves don’t smash their windows. Business owners are resorting to leaving signs for potential criminals, pleading with them not to rob the customers. Smash-and-grab robberies are spilling into the suburbs. Convenience stores are closing down and department stores are leaving inner cities because the shelves are being looted bare. At CVS, Walgreens, and Duane Reade, even the cheapest and most basic merchandise has to be locked up to prevent the stores from being cleaned out. 

This was not the case under President Trump, and Americans know it—regardless of Biden’s pathetic claims.

***

The issue of crime, lawlessness, and chaos in our communities is of paramount importance to the American People as they weigh which candidate to vote for in the 2024 election. That is why it is crucial that both CNN and media analysts hold Joe Biden to account for his egregiously false claims on crime. 

Good-faith journalists and commentators should not allow themselves to be bullied or duped by the Biden campaign into parroting Crooked Joe’s preposterous claims that he is leading a renaissance of public safety. Joe Biden ran for office riding on the back of an all-out assault on American law enforcement, he embraced the most catastrophic criminal justice agenda of any presidential candidate in history, and once in office, he has overseen the most disastrous and sustained degradation of public safety in living memory. 

President Trump will immediately begin to restore law and order to our country as soon as he takes the oath of office.

Read the full memo here.