TO:          Interested Parties

FROM:    Susie Wiles, Chris LaCivita, Tony Fabrizio
                Donald J. Trump for President 2024

DATE:     October 13, 2024

RE:          Is the Kamala Campaign Cracking?

No race is ever over until the last vote is counted, but all of the handwringing among smart Democrat operatives and politically astute media appears quite warranted when you look at where the race was immediately after Labor Day and where it is now.

We predicted the Harris Honeymoon back in July, and did she get a free ride from her media allies. In fact, according to our internal data, virtually ALL the gains made by Harris in the Battleground States came during the month of July, immediately following the coup against Biden and the coronation of Harris—before she or her SuperPAC allies could embark on their no-holds-barred spending spree.

As the table below from our internal Battleground State data shows, Harris' image improved by a net of 15 points, and her ballot position a net of 6 points by the end of July. This is largely due to her earned media joy ride from her allies in the MSM.

According to our internal data, from the end of July through Labor Day, Harris largely treaded water. She made no real gains in her image or her ballot standing against President Trump.

But as most observers know, the campaign season begins in earnest after Labor Day. When you compare the state of the race on the Day after Labor Day to now, what you see will be eye-opening and likely the reason many smart operatives on the other side are wringing their hands over the current state of the race.

State of the Race – September 3, 2024:

• The RCP national polling average was Harris +1.8 – on the same Day in 2020, Biden was +7.2 – Trump running 5.4 points better than 2020
• Also, according to the RCP Battleground State polling averages, Harris was leading with 270 electoral votes to Trump's 262, with 6 EVs tied (No Lean or Toss-up States).

Since Labor Day, the Harris campaign has spent $241,407,417 on trackable media spend compared to only $104,774,939 paid by the Trump campaign – nearly a 2.5 to 1 spending advantage. And yet,

State of the Race – October 11, 2024:

• The RCP national polling average is still Harris +1.8 – on the same Day in 2020, Biden was +10.3 – Trump now running 8.5 points better than 2020
• Also, according to the RCP Battleground State polling averages, in a dramatic turn, Trump is now leading in 296 electoral votes to Harris's 242 EVs (with no Lean or Toss Up states included).

What happened to all of the supposed Harris "momentum?" Frankly, it never really existed beyond the confines of July. According to our internal Battleground State data, the table below illustrates that Harris actually slipped marginally post-Labor Day until now in her image and ballot position.

Given the vast amount of money her campaign has spent and the willingness of the MSM to give her a pass at every turn, how is it possible that she's gone backward in our internal and public polling?

Because she can't convince the voters that she is "the change agent" in the race, that she will be better on the economy, inflation, immigration, crime, or improving people's financial situation, the bottom line is that voters say President Trump will do a better job.

Voters in the Battleground States give President Trump clear advantages on the issues that matter to them most. But that is only part of the story. Harris and her campaign have embarked on an effort to try to sell a version of Harris that never existed:

•  She tried to flip her position on Fracking
• She tried to flip her position on the industry-killing EV mandate
• She tried to sell that she really is tough on the border and illegal immigrants
• She tried to flip her positions on cashless bail and early release for violent criminals

Frankly, she's tried to re-invent herself at every level. And despite once being dubbed the "worst Vice President in the modern era" by many in the media, they gave her a free pass (much like Harris did with hardened criminals on her watch) as she tried to pull a fast one on the voters. However, as has been reported by a few courageous members of the media, voters in focus group after focus group aren't buying it and are uncertain about who Kamala really is.

Then to put the proverbial cherry on top of the sundae, she finally says the first really honest thing in the campaign. When asked, "What would you do differently than Biden?" She said NOTHING. That's right…after months of trying to run away from Biden and his dismal record, she took ownership of it lock, stock and barrel.

While the Harris campaign is busy trying to clean up her monumental gaffe and trying to square it with the version of Kamala they are trying to sell, our campaign will remain laser-focused on drawing the contrast between President Trump's successes as President, Kamala's dismal record and her failures and how her plans will result in higher taxes, higher prices, more illegal immigration, more crime, and potentially America sucked into war.

So, when you examine the shifts in state-level public polling averages, we see evidence that our strategy is working. And when you take a deeper dive into the data and compare the 2020 Exit Polls to our current internal Battleground State data, you see why Kamala is having such a hard time gaining ground:

• President Trump is currently running 13 points ahead of where he finished in 2020 among Independents (According to 2020 Exits in the Battleground States, we lost them by 8, now he is leading by 5).
• President Trump is currently running 20 points ahead of where he finished in 2020 among Blacks (According to 2020 Exits in the Battleground States, we lost them by 81, and now he is trailing by 61).
• President Trump is currently running 32 points ahead of where he finished in 2020 among Hispanics (According to 2020 Exits in the Battleground States, we lost them by 25, and now he is leading by 7).
• President Trump is currently running 11 points ahead of where he finished in 2020 among Voters 18-44 years old (According to 2020 Exits in the Battleground States, we lost them by 15, and now he is trailing by 4).

President Donald Trump and our campaign never take anything for granted. We know what is arrayed against us between the MSM and Harris' cash machine. 

We plan to fight for every last vote. And we wonder if all of the "drape measuring" among Democrats and some in the MSM is perhaps a bit premature. And given the position the Harris team finds itself in, a valid question to ask may well be, "Is the Kamala Campaign Cracking?"

Read the full memo here.