CONFIDENTIAL MEMORANDUM

TO:          TFP SENIOR TEAM

FROM:    TONY FABRIZIO & TRAVIS TUNIS

RE:          POST-DEBATE BUMP FOR TRUMP; HARRIS FLAT

DATE:     SEPTEMBER 12, 2024

Last night, we conducted a survey of 1,893 likely voters across our seven key target states. We found that despite the best efforts of Kamala Harris and media to portray the debate as some kind of overwhelming win for her, voters did not see it this way as support for her remained flat. The only change we saw was a 2-point bump for President Trump in both ballot configurations.

In last week’s data (pre-debate) from our surveys (N=5,600) across our seven target states, both the full and head-to-head ballots were split dead even. In our post-debate data, President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 2-points, 48% - 46%, and in the head-to-head ballot, he is up 3-points, 50% - 47%. Clearly, target state voters were not impressed by Kamala Harris’ empty platitudes and while the media would have people believe she is cruising to victory, this couldn’t be farther from the truth.

Read the full memo here.